Natural carbon sinks in Belgium by 2050 and beyond: Definition of scenarios and assessment of potential
The goal of the project was to explore the potential for natural carbon capture in Belgium by 2050, through the combination of i) land use change scenarios and ii) changes in land use management practices. The Sytra team focused particularly on agricultural land.
Presentation
This study, conducted in 2025, assessed the potential of Belgium’s natural carbon sinks up to the year 2050 and beyond.
It evaluated how changes in land use, agricultural practices, forest management and wetland restoration could increase carbon sequestration, improve resilience, and safeguard biodiversity. It emphasised that strengthening natural sinks is complementary to, not a substitute for, reducing emissions at source across all sectors.
Three land-use scenarios were used :
- Reference scenario: continues historical trends ;
- Current policy scenario: incorporates existing and planned regional measures ;
- Major change scenario: explores a transformative pathway inspired by climate-neutrality scenarios at EU-level.
The analysis suggests that, in order to effectively optimise its natural carbon sinks, Belgium needs to move beyond incremental policies.
While current and planned policy measures can slow or reverse the decline in natural sinks, only transformative land use changes, particularly in the agricultural sector, enable substantial carbon sequestration gains aligned with long-term climate goals. Enhancing natural sinks must be pursued in parallel with emission cuts, strategic spatial planning, and ecosystem-based management across Belgium’s landscapes.
