Narratives, trade-offs and scenarios to explore the livestock transition in Belgium
Scientific paper exploring different scenarios for the livestock transition in Belgium. The paper illustrates dominant narratives, reveals sustainability trade-offs and reflects on the usefulness of foresight approaches.
Presentation
Abstract
The need for a livestock transition is widely acknowledged, entailing both production- and consumption-side adaptations. Yet the direction of this transition remains uncertain as a diversity of narratives and visions coexist. In this paper, we test the outcomes of dominant narratives and recurring elements of debates surrounding the livestock transition. We adopt a quantitative foresight scenario approach and apply it to the case of the Belgian livestock sector, testing four possible scenarios towards 2050 (Business as usual; Land sparing; Land sharing; Radical). Paying particular attention to the diversity of livestock farming systems and the inclusion of a multidimensional set of sustainability indicators, the results reveal the trade-offs that dominating visions entail. As no perfect scenario stands out, the exercise opens a space of options rather than singling out a unique vision. Beyond providing quantitative scenario results, we also take the opportunity to reflect on methodological choices and the usefulness of foresight approaches to advance sustainability transitions.
LINK to the paper
The paper is available open access on the following link : Full paper
